US Outlook 2026 - Another Year of Exceptionalism

US Macro Outlook | Key themes for 2026

Economic Activity

• US growth to remain above 2%, continuing to outperform other major developed economies
• Growth remains resilient, supported by growing evidence of AI’s direct and indirect effects on activity.
• At the macro level, there is no evidence of meaningful credit stress among households or corporates.

Labor Market

• The labor market continues its “no-hire, no-fire” dynamic.
• However, we do expect an improvement in labor demand as policy uncertainty recedes.

Inflation

• While tariffs are still exerting upward pressure on goods inflation, the inflation peak should be lower.
• Easing shelter prices should support disinflation in 2026.

Monetary Policy

• The Fed is effectively on autopilot, but data gaps are forcing a more cautious stance.
• Inflation risks remain skewed to the upside into 1Q26.
• We expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in mid-2026.
• New Fed Chair to start in May/June.

Politics

• Midterm elections will be a key policy driver this year.
• Supreme Court rulings will also shape the policy environment.

Attached is the full report.

BTG Pactual Macro Strategy & Macro Research